Ideas

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Title Tags Status Priority Source Updated
[polymarket][mm] BTC $1M MM parameterisation w=0.002 d=$200 — PASS (caveats) polymarketmmbtcparameterisationpassadverse-selection active 5 polymarket-mm 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][tsstat] 1d logit momentum mean-reversion — INCONCLUSIVE polymarkettsstatmomentummean-reversioninconclusive active 4 polymarket-tsstat 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][mm] CLOB MM Backtest Harness — PASS polymarketmmbacktestharnesspass active 4 polymarket-mm 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][politics] poll_vs_market_divergence_gop2028_trade_rule — INCONCLUSIVE polymarketpoliticstrade-ruleev-analysisinconclusive active 4 polymarket-politics-d6 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][politics] bayesian_gop_poll_aggregator_2028 — PASS polymarketpoliticsbayesianpoll-aggregationpass active 4 polymarket-politics-d6 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][news] Geopolitical-news classifier directional trade on Iran outcome markets — INCONCLUSIVE polymarketnewssignalinconclusive active 4 polymarket-d3 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][struct-arb] Type B MEE multi-outcome basket — INCONCLUSIVE polymarketstruct-arbmee-basketinconclusive active 3 polymarket-struct-arb 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][struct-arb] D7 Structural Arb Scanner — PASS (tool) polymarketstruct-arbscannerpass active 3 polymarket-struct-arb 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][tsstat] realised volatility cross-sectional rank — FAIL polymarkettsstatvolatilityrvolfail active 3 polymarket-tsstat 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][tsstat] D4 time-series factor pipeline — INCONCLUSIVE polymarkettsstatfactor-pipelineinconclusive active 3 polymarket-tsstat 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][sports] EPL Poisson model calibration — PASS (beats uniform) / FAIL (overconfident on favorites) polymarketsportseplpoissoncalibrationpass active 3 polymarket-sports 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][sports] EPL model trade rule vs bookmaker (>5% edge) — FAIL polymarketsportsepltrade-rulebacktestfail active 3 polymarket-sports 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][news] Iran-war geopolitical event study methodology — INCONCLUSIVE polymarketnewsevent-studyinconclusive active 3 polymarket-d3 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][struct-arb] Type C temporal implication (time-chain) — FAIL polymarketstruct-arbtime-consistencyimplicationfail active 2 polymarket-struct-arb 2026-05-20 Edit
[polymarket][struct-arb] Type A YES+NO basket arbitrage — FAIL polymarketstruct-arbbinary-basketfail active 2 polymarket-struct-arb 2026-05-20 Edit
Skill installed on master metaskillinstall active 1 master 2026-05-20 Edit
smoke test test active 0 deploy-check 2026-05-20 Edit
smoke test test active 0 deploy-check 2026-05-20 Edit